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Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony
September 25, 1996, Wednesday
SECTION: CAPITOL HILL HEARING TESTIMONY
LENGTH: 1776 words
HEADLINE: TESTIMONY September 25, 1996 ANDREW W. MELLON PROFESSOR OF
INTERNATION [sic] RELATIONS NITZE SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATION [sic] STUDIES, JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY HOUSE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS WESTERN HEMISPHERE SITUATION IN QUEBEC
Charles F. Doran
Andrew W. Mellon Professor of International Relations
Nitze School of Advanced International Studies,
Johns Hopkins University
September 25, 1996
House Committee on International Relations
Subcommittee On Western Hemisphere
Will Quebec secede from Canada?
What's the impact on
How should the
In the Fall 1995 referendum on
Premier Bouchard has indicated that the top priority for the PQ government is, for the present, fighting the large financial deficit and governing effectively. He argues that
Prediction of future political events with any degree of confidence is impossible. There are many reasons, however, for believing that the threat of
Many things can happen to affect future Outcomes in Quebec, including a return of the pro-federalist (but nationalist) Liberal Party to power, a downturn of the business cycle that temporarily could shock voters, and new policy initiatives on all sides. But the seriousness of
English Canada undoubtedly would attempt to reconstitute itself politically after
First, the eastern
Second, large financial transfer payments currently pass from the rich industrial and oil-abundant provinces to the poorer, less industrialized provinces like
Third, the Canadian West has historically suffered from what analysts call "Western alienation." Some 12 percent of voters in
Fourth, in a
The problem is that, in the end, some provinces might decide to go their own way politically. Ultimately
WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPACT ON
OF CANADIAN FRAGMENTATION?
Accustomed to "peace, order, and good government" above the 49th parallel, Americans have a difficult time imagining a situation in which a number of small, disparate states would occupy the space that once was a united
Administrative interactions would become more numerous, complex, and burdensome. Coalitional arrangements might arise with non- hemispheric powers. Defense arrangements would require multiple participation by independent actors theoretically capable of vetoing policies adopted by the majority representation. How all of these innovations and changes would evolve is beyond the ability of the analyst to systematically explore and delineate.
While all of the actors undoubtedly would prefer membership in NAFTA, keeping NAFTA whole and vigorous might prove demanding. Once individual political borders arise, trade, commercial, and financial obstacles often follow. Continuation of effective trade liberalization on a regional basis is the challenge.
In short, the goal of many to see North America evolve into a broad, open liberal trade order might stumble in the face of an unravelling of
HOW SHOULD THE UNITED STATES RESPOND?
It is time for the
(2) Difficult though the path to statehood would be both for the
LOAD-DATE: September 26, 1996